Very difficult to forecast after Monday due to a frontal system trailing across the UK sliding lengthwise . The exact position, whether it is slightly North or South of the predicted track giving a very different outcome.
Looking on the bright side go with RASP
Monday. 10/15 knt WSW A good day, probably the best of the week.
Tuesday 20 knt SW OK-ish
Wednesday Poor.
Thursday 15 knt N. OK
Friday 20 knt NNE OK-ish
If you trust the BBC then everything after Monday is rubbish
Where were you today? a lovely ridge day. A bit showery in the morning then a beautiful afternoon.
Tuesday is looking tasty 15/20knt westerly, cloudbase 4200, with a 4.5 star rating whats not to like.
So we are open Tuesday, thanks to Pete who has offered to winch and I can run the field
Thursday. 10knt NW backing SW possible low cloud
Friday. 15/20 WNW possible low cloud but less likely than yesterday
Saturday. A long way away but looks like 10/15 W backing S, deteriorating later in the afternoon
It is looking ok Sunday 25knt WSW and a star rating of 1, don’t knock it 1 is not to be sneezed at (if you have a dry cough, a temperature and a sneeze stay away).
Next week Tuesday is looking good, I will look at it Sunday evening and blog.
Thursday and Friday both look flyable at the moment, 15KNT Northerly with a star rating of 3!! on Thursday.
Friday there should be 15knt WSW veering Westerly.
A lot can change in a week so I will post an update.
Dave
Well, the best is Thursday, so lets hope that the snow overnight doesn’t make access difficult.
The forecast is for a 25knt NW which may be challenging! as for the rest:
Friday. Grim
Saturday. 25knt SW, or 20knt SE backing Southerly and grim. Rasp says it will be SW all day with the wind off the clock
Sunday. Rasp quite likes Sunday, challenging 25+knt WSW. some say less wind, some say westerly, some all say showery possibly wintery.
Thursday late morning onwards seems the best (not much competition though)
The wind continues to be a major issue over the next four days with the best, (probably only) flying being Thursday afternoon then Saturday afternoon.
Thursday: After the front passes, hopefully midday, a 25knt westerly gusting 30+ so possibly K21 only
Friday : WSW 40knt+ so probably too windy.
Saturday: Strong westerly but Rasp says it could be ok midday onwards.
Sunday :Windy, damp, low cloud.
Dave
For those of you who venture up to the club, Eddie will be there to feed and water you.
I will try again.
Those who may of compared last weeks forecast to the weather that actually occurred may have spotted a slight discrepancy!! After looking at the various forecasts at 9.00pm Wednesday night Thursday, rather than being a bit of a damp squib with a window of opportunity early afternoon turned out to be flyable all day with a good westerly.
So here goes:
Thursday Very poor wet, cloudy, very high Southerly winds
***Friday Probably the best, 20knt WSW (or Just North of west depending on which site you look at) The warmest day with a reasonable amount of sun
**Saturday 15knt NW A little less warm but a nice day a good amount of sun and some cummulus
*Sunday 5-10kntNNE backing NW and reducing in strength. The coldest with much less sun in the afternoon with possible orographic and canopy misting to finish the day
So, yet again three flyable days, if there are any instructors willing to help on Friday I am sure there will be a few people to fly.
Dave
The best days are Friday and Sunday. Saturday looks atrocious, very windy and wet Thursday has a short window midday/early afternoon.
Friday should have a good amount of sunshine and a light westerly 10knts or so backing southwesterly
Sunday, a bit of a mixed picture but blipspot likes it. Plenty of sun with 20 knts between W & WSW.
So another two flyable days out of four, things are looking up (actually last week was three flyable days out of four, just.)
Friday and Saturday both look flyable, Rasp likes Friday, on the ridge all day. GSD sounding thinks there will be considerably more North in the wind but both agree on 15-20knts.
Saturday, both sites like this, bang on the ridge from GFS and a few degrees further round to the south from Rasp (the ridge will work well with either forecast) both have 15-20knts though Rasp has this dropping off as the afternoon progresses GSD also has a good wave profile, Rasp can’t quite bring itself to promise much though the pattern is there.
So my money is on a GFS Saturday.
Sunday looks classic for orographic, lots of it.
Dave
A brisk southerly (hopefully not too brisk!) with plenty of sun. Simon is on duty so come on up and buy some launches. This is the last day as new year’s eve is a brisk easterly!!
Helen is doing curry night on Monday and steak night on Wednesday. There won’t be any food from the kitchen new years eve as those involved have usually organised a takeaway. I am not sure if anything is happening so if anyone is planning anything please let people know.
See you tomorrow.
The threat of snow has reduced over the last two days so we will go ahead with the dinner as planned. So that is that guessing game over and decision made. In case you have forgotten what you ordered fear not Clive has carefully written out cards with your name and order, the colour of the card indicates your main choice so please leave this visible when we are serving the main course.
See you Saturday.
Dave&Helen
I am late posting this as I didn’t have any confidence in the timing of all these fronts. I am only slightly more confident now but if I don’t post today it will be “that was the week we had!”.
Thursday: Starts very well, 15knt westerly but deteriorates as an occluded front arrives lunchtime then it gets miserable as it rains, the wind veers and slackens
NEWS FLASH; There will be an unusual celestial event Friday, Saturday and Sunday, Wall to wall sunshine,a phenomenon unknown on the Mynd for a number of weeks.
Friday: Sunshine with a light Northerly
Saturday: Sunshine with a strong North Easterly (possibly too strong but don’t discount it)
Sunday: Sunshine with a 10/15knt Northerly
Don’t forget there will be a members evening on Saturday where you get a chance to voice out loud all your moans and wish-list for the present and aspirations and hopes for the future. This is a much better forum than the canteen table!
There is also a menu out already for Saturday night so let Helen know if you will want feeding.
My OP has been cancelled so I am on this Thursday and Friday. The weather is not the best I have seen but the more optimistic sites have Friday morning as the best.
Thursday; 28-30Knt SE, with high probability of low/orographic cloud.
Friday; 26-28knt (rasp 20knt) Southerly backing SE in the afternoon. Slightly less probability of low/orographic cloud
Saturday; 25Knt E, Norfolk and chance spring to mind, or Rasp 15Knt ENE a bit more of a chance. High probability of low/orographic cloud.
Sunday; 25+Knt Southerly even higher probability of low cloud.
On the plus side there will be plenty of pictures of very nice weather on Saturday night, on the minus side we had a clerical error with the menu, the Lamb Shank is £9.00 not £8.50 as advertised. If you intend to eat with us it will help if you can order beforehand phoning Helen 07547434799 or emailing me, davecrowson56@yahoo.co.uk
Well, if I was you I would put my money on Tuesday.
Today poor until the afternoon when it should be flyable
Tuesday, light southwesterly, day of the week (probably)
Wednesday, still ok, a bit more wind, a bit more moisture about
Thursday, brisk WSW with more moisture than Wednesday, however if a little more round to the west and less moisture could be worth keeping an eye on
Friday very brisk, very moist.
Dave
A pretty mixed bag.
Monday very poor
Tuesday not as bad as Monday
Wednesday better than Tuesday
Thursday not as good as Wednessday
Friday worse than Thursday
It’s all a matter of timing but Wednesday looks the best so far. I will keep an eye on it and post if there is any significant change, sorry Jared there are no solo days this week.
Dave
If you are planning your week then I would go for Wednesday . After midday today (Monday) it looks poor til Wednesday which looks very nice, then it depends on the amount of cloud about but my money is on Friday as the ridge should work.
This morning I am sitting in the clubhouse with the sun shinning waiting for the rain which should be here by lunchtime.
Let me know if you are coming Wednesday and I will try to find a second instructor if there are enough of you.
Dave
Another wave profile on Sunday, last Wednesday worked albeit late in the day with climbs to 7500′ AMSL.
Tomorrow has a similar profile and Rasp has a little more faith, so should we.
Keep your eye on Wednesday, if I were asked to draw a Tephi profile of a wave day the GFS tephi for Wednesdat afternoon is what it would look like.
Dave
It’s Friday morning and the Burway is clear, still no flying though as we have a 25knt+ easterly!
We have just had about 4″ of imperial snow or 100mm of metric snow depending your age, blown along by a 30knt easterly!!.
If you are coming up on Friday ring first as I will test the roads to see if they are clear. At the moment they have significant drifts and are impassable even with 4×4 I will try again in the morning.